So Long Solanke?

How do we align Solanke's data with the negativity around his FPL prospects?

Looking at single game xG data is admittedly fraught with risk, and I'm about to double down on that by looking at event-level xG data, so take all the below in the right context. You can't really say "if you take away these events then X" because those events did in fact happen, whether we like it or not. What I do think is fair however, is to point out those events which perhaps have a lack of repeatability to them and might suggest an overinflation of xG accrued (the word “might” doing a lot of work here).

Despite the increasing negativity around him - and the net 50,000 sales at the time of writing in GW10 - Dominic Solanke is still pretty close to my current wildcard 10 draft, and features in 96% of FPL Review solves at my (admittedly terrible) team value level. The Spurs man is posting a healthy 0.52 xG90 (12th in the league) and 0.63 npxG+xA/90 (16th), ahead of the likes of Wood, Diaz, and Mbeumo in the former category, and teammates Son and Johnson, along with Foden, Bruno, and Havertz in the latter. And yet, watching him play - particularly of late - has been somewhat painful and the temptation to chase cheaper options like Cunha, Jimenez, Welbeck, or Wissa increases by the day.

To try and understand the perceived gap in the narrative and those solid xG numbers, I went back to look at the 15 shots Solanke has registered this season to see if we can spot anything which exacerbates or calms some of those fears. To repeat the earlier caveat, what we don’t want to do here is say that if we remove his high xG events then his overall xG is low; the same thing could be said of any player and getting high xG chances isn’t something we should punish! However, we also know that all xG events are not necessarily created equally in their likelihood for repetition in the future, and it’s that factor we are focusing on here.

Defensive Errors

3.0 xG out of Solanke’s total of 3.66 came in back-to-back games in GW5 and GW6, namely the wildly open 3-1 victory over Brentford and the 3-0 thrashing of 10-man Man United at Old Trafford. Against Brentford, Solanke had three very good chances, including a tap-in which he duly converted for his goal (0.7 xG), although questions can fairly be raised about the likelihood of similar chances arriving in the future. Here, Pinnock had taken a knock about 30 seconds earlier, and we can see him still doubled over in the below screenshot.

Flekken plays the ball out wide before it comes back to Pinnock in plenty of space, who - obviously hampered by injury - inexplicably squares the ball which is easily pinched by Maddison who muscles off the defender to get a decent shot away, which is then mis-handled by the parry-happy Flekken right into path of Solanke to tap home (0.71 xG, goal).

More suicidal defending followed in the 53rd minute as Collins this time plays a square ball inside which is this time intercepted by Bentancur, who while surrounded by four defenders falls over, knocking the ball through Pinnock’s legs straight to Solanke who could do better from six yards (0.47 xG, saved).

Flekken can be excused for parrying this shot, but again it falls to the feet of Solanke, who does well enough to get a shot away, which is blocked at close range by van den Berg (0.14 xG, blocked).

Solanke almost benefited from another ‘keeper error in GW6 with Onana parrying a weak Werner shot back across goal towards Solanke, though this time credit to Onana for recovering much quicker than Flekken (0.11 xG, saved).

Credit can be given to Solanke for being in the right place to get to these shots, but the point remains that a series of somewhat unlikely events have to happen to present these golden opportunities to Solanke. Solanke will of course face poor sides again, but if we’re saying he needs weak opponents or at least opponent errors to give him chances, that does seem to narrow his window of success.

Set Pieces

Solanke has added 1.2 xG from shots from set pieces (either directly or from the second phase), and in fact set piece shots have been the only source of shots for the Spurs man in Gameweeks 7-9. Most of these set piece chances were fairly low likelihood shots, with the exception of his goal against Man United. Now, again, it’s absolutely fine to rely on chances from set pieces, and indeed being a threat from them is a positive factor for FPL options. Yet, looking at this chance, you have to wonder whether this kind of event is likely to happen again, or whether it was a slightly more random occurrence that could happen again, but cannot really be relied upon. At the time, United were down to 10-men, losing 2-0 at home, and obviously just not playing well under Ten Hag: not factors that will regularly occur. They also setup for the corner like this:

Casemiro allows Sarr to wander behind him, sneak ahead of him and ultimately win the flick on essentially uncontested. Dalot just stands towards the back post area when no Spurs player ever enters that space (and ensures Solanke is onside after the flick on). De Light gets drawn the ball but is miles away from it, and Martinez and Mazraoui don’t do much wrong but get boxed out by Van de Ven and Romero. This all leaves Solanke completely unmarked to tap in from about four yards out after Sarr wins the first header.

It’s decent movement from Solanke, and one can argue it’s good set piece design, but you have to wonder if United would have at least had a body on Solanke to slow him down if they’d had a full XI on the pitch at the time. Solanke will of course face teams who are poor at defending set pieces (looking at you, Southampton) but, again, while we’re always going to target weaker sides, at 7.7m I’d really like a player who has a reasonable chance at success despite the fixture.

By the Numbers

By my count, Solanke has only registered six shots from open play in seven games, excluding those highlighted above from clear defensive errors.

Further, 11 of his 15 shots have come against Man Utd, Leicester, and Brentford, who all rank in the bottom handful of defensive teams so far this season:

Tottenham are seen as having a nice run of fixtures ahead, but they are potentially harder than they initially seem, although those two fixtures against the promoted sides could of course be enough to give Solanke the opportunity to silence the critics.

Summary

There isn’t enough here to suggest Solanke is a must-sell or to eliminate him from contention from wildcard teams. However, together with the fact he looked fatigued after the Carabao Cup win over Man City, plus the increasing health of Richarlison (who’s threat is likely to come via facilitating earlier subs rather than stealing starts), I am leaning towards excluding him from consideration.

It’s easy to cherry pick chances for players and conclue they were somehow “lucky” to receive them and chopping xG into tiny pieces is not typically how it should be used. But in this case, it’s actually the data which would support his inclusion in teams, with the so-called “eye test” suggesting he is playing too deep and not getting enough touches in dangerous areas to return the ~double-digit goal tally we’d need at his price bracket.

Spurs are a good attacking side, and if Son returns to full health, Richarlison gives them another option off the bench, and Maddison figures out a way to contribute, then we can quickly be in a position when 7.7m for the player at the apex of that attacking unit could offer excellent value. As it stands though, the only factor that really supports Solanke is that solid xG total, and this analysis does enough to undermine that slightly, which together with the other factors probably suggests we might take another direction.

I suppose the key factor is how one might deploy a 1.2-2.0m saving by opting for the likes of Jimenez / Wissa / Welbeck / Wood / Cunha and right now I’d suggest there are plenty of avenues where even high value teams could use an upgrade, whether to turn a budget ‘keeper into Raya, a two-point-a-game 5th defender into a rotatable option, or to give wiggle room for your 5th midfield if otherwise locked into the pricey combo of Salah, Palmer, and Saka/Son.